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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) suggests a 1.3% increase year over year to $1.62. The estimate has remained unchanged in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues currently stands at $105.04 billion, calling for 2.1% growth year over year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CVS Health has a solid earnings surprise history. Its bottom line surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 20.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q3 Earnings Whispers for CVS
Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has a higher chance of beating estimates, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: CVS Health has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
What May Have Influenced CVS Health’s Q3 Performance?
Health Care Benefits
Health Care Benefits revenues are likely to have benefited from strength in the Government business in the third quarter of 2026. However, the benefit may have been partly offset by CVS Health’s exit from the individual exchange business in 2026. At the end of the second quarter, medical membership declined by roughly 700,000 members year over year, primarily due to the exit, partly offset by growth in commercial fee-based membership. The trend is expected to have been carried into the third quarter as well. Elevated medical cost utilization trends are likely to have persisted in the quarter across all products, weighing on the overall performance.
Aetna’s continued margin recovery is likely to have supported the segment, building on more than $2 billion in adjusted operating income improvement earlier this year. The Medicare business may have delivered a robust performance, as the company continues to experience pockets of favorability due to strong medical cost management and disciplined pricing. Contributions from the Medicaid and Commercial businesses may also have supported overall revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Health Care Benefits segment's revenues indicates a 4.6% year-over-year decrease.
Health Services
Similar to the past quarters, revenues in this segment are expected to have benefited from pharmacy drug mix and brand inflation. However, continued pharmacy client price improvements may have restricted the full extent of growth. Adjusted operating income in the segment is expected to have benefited from improved purchasing economics and pharmacy drug mix.
CVS has continued to execute its operational plans for the health care delivery business, including slowing the pace of new Oak Street Health clinic openings, investing in technology, bringing in new leadership and pursuing fair and equitable contracts with payer clients. These initiatives may have continued to support the segment’s third-quarter performance. In the second quarter, Health Services revenues grew nearly 23% year over year, primarily driven by Oak Street Health.
Meanwhile, the Caremark pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) faced pressure in its 340B business in a dynamic program environment. The business also experienced a pull-forward of value previously expected in the second half of the year. Excluding this timing benefit, underlying performance was in line with expectations, supported by strength across the broader Caremark business, including higher specialty generic penetration rates, which offset 340B-related pressure. These dynamics may have persisted in the third quarter, weighing on the segment’s revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Health Services’ net revenues implies a 5% increase year over year.
Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness
This segment is also expected to have delivered a solid performance in the third quarter of 2026, supported by pharmacy drug mix, brand inflation and higher prescription volume, including contributions from the Rite Aid transaction. However, factors like regulatory-related price reductions on select drugs, the impact of recent generic drug introductions and pharmacy reimbursement pressure are likely to have weighed on performance.
Increased pharmacy prescription volumes on a 30-day equivalent basis are likely to have supported same-store sales growth, although these benefits may have been partly offset by the abovementioned headwinds.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate expects Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness revenues to decline 1.9% year over year.
CVS Investment Consideration: Two Factors to Note
Rapid Digital Growth: CVS Health’s $20 billion technology investment over the next decade entered the deployment phase in 2026. In July, the company began the targeted launch of Health100, including Haio, its AI-powered health assistant, with broader access planned later in the year. Aetna also launched the second generation of Claims Assist Manager, an AI-enabled claims advisor that management expects to reduce processing time by more than 20% for complex claims requiring manual review. CVS is also using technology to improve provider connectivity and data sharing in Health Care Delivery, including AI and analytics that can analyze more than one billion pages of clinical records.
Near-Term Earnings Pressure: CVS Health expects its Pharmacy Services business to face continued headwinds in 2027 as market dynamics in the 340B business persist. Caremark is also expected to see membership declines next year on two factors. As the company transitions toward a pricing model grounded in the lowest net cost, it is taking a measured approach to client renewals and the selling season to ensure that existing agreements reflect appropriate underwriting risk and contracting structures. Industry dynamics are already affecting legacy contracts. Product actions and market exit by certain health plan customers are expected to put further pressure on Caremark membership.
CVS: Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past six months, CVS shares have rallied 19.3%, trailing its industry’s 21.4% growth but outperforming the 14.6% rise of the broader Medical sector. The stock has also fared better than two key peers, UnitedHealth Group (UNH - Free Report) and The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) . During the same period, UNH shares have returned 17.9%, while CI has gained 8.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CVS is trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings (P/E) of 11.10X, lower than its 11.14X historical median and the industry average of 16.22X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
CVS Health’s upcoming third-quarter 2026 results are expected to reflect mixed trends across its segments, with continued Aetna margin recovery, improvements in the health care delivery business and strength in the Government business supporting performance. The company’s history of surpassing earnings expectations fuels optimism for another beat. Despite slightly underperforming its industry, CVS has outpaced the broader sector and key peers. Given CVS Health’s favorable valuation and growing digital investments, current shareholders may consider holding their positions. However, prospective investors may want to wait for a more favorable entry point as CVS navigates 340B-related pressure.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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CVS Health Q3 Earnings Preview: How to Approach the Stock?
Key Takeaways
CVS Health (CVS - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4, before the market opens.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) suggests a 1.3% increase year over year to $1.62. The estimate has remained unchanged in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues currently stands at $105.04 billion, calling for 2.1% growth year over year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CVS Health has a solid earnings surprise history. Its bottom line surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 20.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q3 Earnings Whispers for CVS
Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has a higher chance of beating estimates, which is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: CVS Health has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.
What May Have Influenced CVS Health’s Q3 Performance?
Health Care Benefits
Health Care Benefits revenues are likely to have benefited from strength in the Government business in the third quarter of 2026. However, the benefit may have been partly offset by CVS Health’s exit from the individual exchange business in 2026. At the end of the second quarter, medical membership declined by roughly 700,000 members year over year, primarily due to the exit, partly offset by growth in commercial fee-based membership. The trend is expected to have been carried into the third quarter as well. Elevated medical cost utilization trends are likely to have persisted in the quarter across all products, weighing on the overall performance.
Aetna’s continued margin recovery is likely to have supported the segment, building on more than $2 billion in adjusted operating income improvement earlier this year. The Medicare business may have delivered a robust performance, as the company continues to experience pockets of favorability due to strong medical cost management and disciplined pricing. Contributions from the Medicaid and Commercial businesses may also have supported overall revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Health Care Benefits segment's revenues indicates a 4.6% year-over-year decrease.
Health Services
Similar to the past quarters, revenues in this segment are expected to have benefited from pharmacy drug mix and brand inflation. However, continued pharmacy client price improvements may have restricted the full extent of growth. Adjusted operating income in the segment is expected to have benefited from improved purchasing economics and pharmacy drug mix.
CVS has continued to execute its operational plans for the health care delivery business, including slowing the pace of new Oak Street Health clinic openings, investing in technology, bringing in new leadership and pursuing fair and equitable contracts with payer clients. These initiatives may have continued to support the segment’s third-quarter performance. In the second quarter, Health Services revenues grew nearly 23% year over year, primarily driven by Oak Street Health.
Meanwhile, the Caremark pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) faced pressure in its 340B business in a dynamic program environment. The business also experienced a pull-forward of value previously expected in the second half of the year. Excluding this timing benefit, underlying performance was in line with expectations, supported by strength across the broader Caremark business, including higher specialty generic penetration rates, which offset 340B-related pressure. These dynamics may have persisted in the third quarter, weighing on the segment’s revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Health Services’ net revenues implies a 5% increase year over year.
Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness
This segment is also expected to have delivered a solid performance in the third quarter of 2026, supported by pharmacy drug mix, brand inflation and higher prescription volume, including contributions from the Rite Aid transaction. However, factors like regulatory-related price reductions on select drugs, the impact of recent generic drug introductions and pharmacy reimbursement pressure are likely to have weighed on performance.
Increased pharmacy prescription volumes on a 30-day equivalent basis are likely to have supported same-store sales growth, although these benefits may have been partly offset by the abovementioned headwinds.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate expects Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness revenues to decline 1.9% year over year.
CVS Investment Consideration: Two Factors to Note
Rapid Digital Growth: CVS Health’s $20 billion technology investment over the next decade entered the deployment phase in 2026. In July, the company began the targeted launch of Health100, including Haio, its AI-powered health assistant, with broader access planned later in the year. Aetna also launched the second generation of Claims Assist Manager, an AI-enabled claims advisor that management expects to reduce processing time by more than 20% for complex claims requiring manual review. CVS is also using technology to improve provider connectivity and data sharing in Health Care Delivery, including AI and analytics that can analyze more than one billion pages of clinical records.
Near-Term Earnings Pressure: CVS Health expects its Pharmacy Services business to face continued headwinds in 2027 as market dynamics in the 340B business persist. Caremark is also expected to see membership declines next year on two factors. As the company transitions toward a pricing model grounded in the lowest net cost, it is taking a measured approach to client renewals and the selling season to ensure that existing agreements reflect appropriate underwriting risk and contracting structures. Industry dynamics are already affecting legacy contracts. Product actions and market exit by certain health plan customers are expected to put further pressure on Caremark membership.
CVS: Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past six months, CVS shares have rallied 19.3%, trailing its industry’s 21.4% growth but outperforming the 14.6% rise of the broader Medical sector. The stock has also fared better than two key peers, UnitedHealth Group (UNH - Free Report) and The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) . During the same period, UNH shares have returned 17.9%, while CI has gained 8.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CVS is trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings (P/E) of 11.10X, lower than its 11.14X historical median and the industry average of 16.22X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
CVS Health’s upcoming third-quarter 2026 results are expected to reflect mixed trends across its segments, with continued Aetna margin recovery, improvements in the health care delivery business and strength in the Government business supporting performance. The company’s history of surpassing earnings expectations fuels optimism for another beat. Despite slightly underperforming its industry, CVS has outpaced the broader sector and key peers. Given CVS Health’s favorable valuation and growing digital investments, current shareholders may consider holding their positions. However, prospective investors may want to wait for a more favorable entry point as CVS navigates 340B-related pressure.